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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Mar 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 82 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (24 Mar) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day two (25 Mar) and expected to be very low on day three (26 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 321 km/s at 22/2302Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 813 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (24 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (25 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (26 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Mar to 26 Mar
Class M 10%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Mar 079
  Predicted    24 Mar-26 Mar 080/077/074
  90 Day Mean        23 Mar 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar  002/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Mar  008/010
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar  020/025-010/012-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar to 26 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%20%10%
Minor storm 30%05%01%
Major-severe storm 05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%20%15%
Minor storm 20%25%20%
Major-severe storm 70%20%20%

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