Viewing archive of Saturday, 23 March 2019
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Mar 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 82 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2019IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (24 Mar) and expected to
be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day two (25 Mar)
and expected to be very low on day three (26 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 321 km/s at 22/2302Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 813 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (24 Mar), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (25 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (26
Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Mar to 26 Mar
| Class M | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Mar 079 Predicted 24 Mar-26 Mar 080/077/074 90 Day Mean 23 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar 002/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Mar 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar 020/025-010/012-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar to 26 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 20% | 20% |
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