Viewing archive of Wednesday, 20 March 2019
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Mar 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 79 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2019IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
20/1118Z from Region 2736 (N09W35). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Mar,
22 Mar, 23 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 423 km/s at 19/2328Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1551 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (21 Mar, 22 Mar) and quiet to
major storm levels on day three (23 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Mar to 23 Mar
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Mar 077 Predicted 21 Mar-23 Mar 078/078/078 90 Day Mean 20 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Mar 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar 006/005-005/005-017/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar to 23 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 40% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 20% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 65% |
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