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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Mar 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 79 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 20/1118Z from Region 2736 (N09W35). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Mar, 22 Mar, 23 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 423 km/s at 19/2328Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1551 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (21 Mar, 22 Mar) and quiet to major storm levels on day three (23 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Mar to 23 Mar
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Mar 077
  Predicted   21 Mar-23 Mar 078/078/078
  90 Day Mean        20 Mar 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Mar  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar  006/005-005/005-017/030

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar to 23 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%25%
Minor storm01%01%40%
Major-severe storm01%01%20%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%05%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm15%15%65%

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