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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Mar 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 72 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Mar, 15 Mar, 16 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 372 km/s at 13/0029Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 13/1914Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 13/1828Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 464 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (14 Mar, 16 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day two (15 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Mar to 16 Mar
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Mar 071
  Predicted    14 Mar-16 Mar 070/070/068
  90 Day Mean        13 Mar 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Mar  005/005
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar  009/008-010/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar to 16 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%30%10%
Minor storm 01%10%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm 20%30%25%
Major-severe storm 10%30%20%

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