Viewing archive of Monday, 25 February 2019

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Feb 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 56 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb, 28 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 349 km/s at 25/1827Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 25/0638Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 25/0750Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Feb), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (27 Feb) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (28 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Feb to 28 Feb
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Feb 070
  Predicted    26 Feb-28 Feb 070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        25 Feb 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb  001/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Feb  004/004
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb  007/008-012/018-020/024

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb to 28 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%40%40%
Minor storm 05%25%25%
Major-severe storm 01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%10%10%
Minor storm 25%30%30%
Major-severe storm 25%50%55%

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