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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Feb 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 41 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Feb, 12 Feb, 13 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 479 km/s at 10/0318Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2734 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (11 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Feb to 13 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Feb 070
  Predicted   11 Feb-13 Feb 070/071/072
  90 Day Mean        10 Feb 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb  006/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Feb  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb  006/005-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb to 13 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm20%25%25%
Major-severe storm10%20%20%

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