Viewing archive of Friday, 18 January 2019

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Jan 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 18 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan, 21 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 509 km/s at 17/2116Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 18/0202Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 18/0139Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan, 21 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jan to 21 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Jan 069
  Predicted   19 Jan-21 Jan 069/069/071
  90 Day Mean        18 Jan 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Jan  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan to 21 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

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