Viewing archive of Thursday, 17 January 2019

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Jan 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 17 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (18 Jan, 19 Jan, 20 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 526 km/s at 17/2014Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 17/1340Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 17/1408Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jan to 20 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Jan 070
  Predicted   18 Jan-20 Jan 070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        17 Jan 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Jan  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan  006/006-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan to 20 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm20%10%10%

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