Viewing archive of Sunday, 4 November 2018

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Nov 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Nov, 06 Nov, 07 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 458 km/s at 04/1823Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 04/1942Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 04/1942Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (05 Nov), quiet to active levels on day two (06 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (07 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Nov to 07 Nov
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Nov 067
  Predicted   05 Nov-07 Nov 068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        04 Nov 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov  003/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Nov  009/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov  015/020-010/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov to 07 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%25%20%
Minor storm20%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm25%30%30%
Major-severe storm60%40%30%

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