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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Oct 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (04 Oct, 05 Oct, 06 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 463 km/s at 02/2226Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 03/2012Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 03/2006Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 996 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 Oct) and quiet levels on days two and three (05 Oct, 06 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Oct to 06 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Oct 068
  Predicted   04 Oct-06 Oct 068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        03 Oct 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct  006/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Oct  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct  007/008-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct to 06 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%10%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm30%30%10%

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