Viewing archive of Sunday, 19 August 2018

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Aug 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (20 Aug, 21 Aug, 22 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 499 km/s at 19/0015Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 19/1808Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 19/1638Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 18287 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and two (20 Aug, 21 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (22 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Aug to 22 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Aug 067
  Predicted   20 Aug-22 Aug 067/067/067
  90 Day Mean        19 Aug 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug  011/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Aug  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug  016/020-014/018-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug to 22 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%30%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm25%25%30%
Major-severe storm50%50%40%

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