Viewing archive of Saturday, 11 August 2018

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Aug 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Aug 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Aug, 13 Aug, 14 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 417 km/s at 11/2033Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 11/0329Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 11/2021Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 Aug), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (13 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (14 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Aug to 14 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Aug 067
  Predicted   12 Aug-14 Aug 068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        11 Aug 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Aug  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Aug  009/011
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug  011/012-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Aug to 14 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%10%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%25%20%
Major-severe storm30%25%10%

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