Viewing archive of Monday, 16 July 2018

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Jul 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 Jul, 18 Jul, 19 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 364 km/s at 16/1947Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 16/2045Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 16/0538Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 158 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (17 Jul, 18 Jul, 19 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jul to 19 Jul
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Jul 072
  Predicted   17 Jul-19 Jul 072/072/072
  90 Day Mean        16 Jul 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul  004/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Jul  007/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul to 19 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm15%15%15%

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