Viewing archive of Wednesday, 16 May 2018

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 May 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 May, 18 May, 19 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 369 km/s at 15/2127Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 16/2040Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 16/2036Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 15763 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (17 May), unsettled to active levels on day two (18 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (19 May).
III. Event Probabilities 17 May to 19 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 May 070
  Predicted   17 May-19 May 070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        16 May 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 May  005/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 May  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May  013/018-011/014-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May to 19 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm25%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm60%50%35%

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