Viewing archive of Wednesday, 6 September 2017

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Sep 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X9 event observed at 06/1202Z from Region 2673 (S09W45). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Sep, 08 Sep, 09 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 494 km/s at 06/0259Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 06/0136Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 06/1325Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 155 pfu at 05/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7224 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (07 Sep) and active to severe storm levels on days two and three (08 Sep, 09 Sep). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (07 Sep), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (08 Sep) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (09 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Sep to 09 Sep
Class M 75%75%75%
Class X 50%50%50%
Proton85%25%15%
PCAFred
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Sep 133
  Predicted    07 Sep-09 Sep 135/135/135
  90 Day Mean        06 Sep 080

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep  011/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Sep  019/037
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep  032/045-035/052-031/045

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep to 09 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 35%35%35%
Major-severe storm 50%50%50%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm 35%20%25%
Major-severe storm 45%55%60%

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