Viewing archive of Saturday, 2 September 2017

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Sep 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 02/1541Z from Region 2672 (N08W98). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Sep, 04 Sep, 05 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 721 km/s at 02/0239Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 01/2335Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 02/0326Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7573 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (04 Sep, 05 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Sep to 05 Sep
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Sep 100
  Predicted   03 Sep-05 Sep 101/101/098
  90 Day Mean        02 Sep 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep  017/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Sep  020/028
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep  013/015-007/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep to 05 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%25%20%
Major-severe storm20%25%20%

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