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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Aug 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Aug, 12 Aug, 13 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 439 km/s at 10/0906Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6774 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Aug) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (12 Aug, 13 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Aug to 13 Aug
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Aug 071
  Predicted    11 Aug-13 Aug 072/072/071
  90 Day Mean        10 Aug 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Aug  006/006
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug  008/008-012/015-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug to 13 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%30%25%
Minor storm 05%10%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 30%25%30%
Major-severe storm 30%40%40%

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