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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Aug 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (08 Aug, 09 Aug) and expected to be very low on day three (10 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 600 km/s at 06/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 11301 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Aug) and quiet levels on days two and three (09 Aug, 10 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Aug to 10 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Aug 073
  Predicted   08 Aug-10 Aug 073/073/073
  90 Day Mean        07 Aug 075

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug  013/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Aug  006/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug  007/008-007/006-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug to 10 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm35%20%15%

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