Viewing archive of Monday, 17 July 2017

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Jul 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 198 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jul 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 17/0328Z from Region 2665 (S06W86). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (18 Jul) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day two (19 Jul) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day three (20 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds averaged around 540 km/s. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 16/2211Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 17/1359Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 12226 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (19 Jul, 20 Jul). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (18 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jul to 20 Jul
Class M 20%05%01%
Class X 05%01%01%
Proton20%05%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Jul 086
  Predicted    18 Jul-20 Jul 085/075/075
  90 Day Mean        17 Jul 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jul  029/042
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Jul  025/037
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul  011/012-008/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jul to 20 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%20%20%
Minor storm 15%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm 30%25%25%
Major-severe storm 50%30%30%

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