Viewing archive of Saturday, 17 June 2017

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Jun 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Jun, 19 Jun, 20 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 599 km/s at 16/2100Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 17/1613Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 16/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 669 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Jun), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (19 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (20 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jun to 20 Jun
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Jun 075
  Predicted   18 Jun-20 Jun 075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        17 Jun 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun  018/019
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Jun  013/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun  010/010-009/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun to 20 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%10%10%

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