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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 May 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 23 May 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 May, 25 May, 26 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 592 km/s at 23/0307Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 22/2103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 22/2108Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9337 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (24 May), quiet levels on day two (25 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (26 May).
III. Event Probabilities 24 May to 26 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 May 076
  Predicted   24 May-26 May 075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        23 May 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 May  009/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 May  008/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 May-26 May  007/008-005/005-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 May to 26 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%10%20%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%20%
Major-severe storm05%10%20%

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