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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Mar 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 86 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Mar 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 27/1820Z from Region 2645 (S09E59). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (28 Mar, 29 Mar) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (30 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 720 km/s at 27/2010Z. Total IMF reached 19 nT at 27/0752Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 27/0827Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7934 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to major storm levels on day one (28 Mar), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (29 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (30 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Mar to 30 Mar
Class M15%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Mar 083
  Predicted   28 Mar-30 Mar 084/083/082
  90 Day Mean        27 Mar 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Mar  003/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Mar  030/059
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar  029/040-025/035-020/024

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Mar to 30 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm35%30%20%
Major-severe storm15%15%05%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm20%25%25%

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