Viewing archive of Sunday, 12 February 2017

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Feb 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 43 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Feb, 14 Feb, 15 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 361 km/s at 11/2342Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 12/1821Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 12/1903Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4590 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (13 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (14 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (15 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Feb 076
  Predicted    13 Feb-15 Feb 077/077/077
  90 Day Mean        12 Feb 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Feb  004/005
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb  006/005-007/008-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%20%30%
Minor storm 01%05%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 20%30%30%
Major-severe storm 10%30%40%

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