Viewing archive of Sunday, 15 January 2017

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Jan 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 15 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan, 18 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 349 km/s at 15/0228Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 15/1742Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 15/1118Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3432 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (16 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (17 Jan) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (18 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jan to 18 Jan
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Jan 078
  Predicted    16 Jan-18 Jan 077/077/077
  90 Day Mean        15 Jan 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan  003/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Jan  006/005
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan  005/005-007/008-019/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan to 18 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%15%45%
Minor storm 05%05%25%
Major-severe storm 01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%10%
Minor storm 10%25%25%
Major-severe storm 15%20%70%

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