Viewing archive of Thursday, 22 December 2016

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Dec 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (23 Dec, 24 Dec, 25 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 716 km/s at 22/0528Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 21/2200Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 21/2203Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8093 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (23 Dec, 24 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (25 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Dec to 25 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Dec 075
  Predicted   23 Dec-25 Dec 073/073/072
  90 Day Mean        22 Dec 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec  018/030
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Dec  019/026
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec  011/012-010/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec to 25 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%15%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm35%35%20%

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