Viewing archive of Tuesday, 20 December 2016

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Dec 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 355 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Dec 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Dec, 22 Dec, 23 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 380 km/s at 20/1910Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 20/1837Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 20/2051Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 345 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (21 Dec), active to minor storm levels on day two (22 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (23 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Dec to 23 Dec
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Dec 075
  Predicted    21 Dec-23 Dec 075/075/080
  90 Day Mean        20 Dec 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Dec  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Dec  008/010
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 21 Dec-23 Dec  017/025-020/030-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Dec to 23 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%25%
Minor storm 25%25%10%
Major-severe storm 05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm 25%25%25%
Major-severe storm 60%60%35%

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