Viewing archive of Wednesday, 10 August 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Aug 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (11 Aug) and likely to be
low on days two and three (12 Aug, 13 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 685 km/s at 10/1530Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 10/0517Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
10/0519Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 5975 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 Aug), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (12 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (13 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Aug to 13 Aug
| Class M | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Aug 095 Predicted 11 Aug-13 Aug 095/095/090 90 Day Mean 10 Aug 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug 015/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug 012/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug 010/012-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug to 13 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 25% | 15% |
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