Viewing archive of Friday, 3 June 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Jun 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04
Jun, 05 Jun, 06 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 358 km/s at 03/2015Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1288 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on days one and two (04 Jun, 05
Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (06 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jun to 06 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jun 083 Predicted 04 Jun-06 Jun 082/080/080 90 Day Mean 03 Jun 092
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun 005/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jun 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun 024/035-021/032-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun to 06 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 15% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 70% | 40% |
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