Viewing archive of Monday, 16 May 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 May 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
16/1525Z from Region 2544 (N20W27). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (17 May) and likely to be
low on days two and three (18 May, 19 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 567 km/s at 16/0113Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 16/1636Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
16/1154Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2 pfu at 15/2315Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1269 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (17 May, 19 May)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (18 May).
III. Event Probabilities 17 May to 19 May
| Class M | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 May 102 Predicted 17 May-19 May 102/100/100 90 Day Mean 16 May 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 May 012/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 May 015/019 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May 010/012-008/008-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May to 19 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 30% | 50% |
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