Viewing archive of Saturday, 7 May 2016

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 May 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 07/1713Z from Region 2541 (N04E00). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 May, 09 May, 10 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 571 km/s at 07/0007Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 06/2214Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 06/2241Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 125 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (08 May) and unsettled to minor storm levels on days two and three (09 May, 10 May).
III. Event Probabilities 08 May to 10 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 May 088
  Predicted   08 May-10 May 085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        07 May 094

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 May  012/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 May  008/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May  013/018-018/025-018/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May to 10 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm10%30%30%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm30%20%20%
Major-severe storm40%65%65%

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