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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Apr 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Apr 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 09/2255Z from Region 2529 (N10E54). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Apr, 12 Apr, 13 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 432 km/s at 10/2050Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 10/1306Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 10/0615Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (11 Apr, 12 Apr) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (13 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Apr to 13 Apr
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Apr 111
  Predicted   11 Apr-13 Apr 112/112/112
  90 Day Mean        10 Apr 098

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Apr  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Apr  007/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr  008/008-008/008-013/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Apr to 13 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%35%
Minor storm05%01%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%10%
Minor storm15%25%25%
Major-severe storm15%20%50%

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