Viewing archive of Thursday, 11 February 2016

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Feb 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 42 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 11/1649Z from Region 2497 (N13W06). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb, 14 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 407 km/s at 10/2130Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 11/2057Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 11/2052Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 104 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (13 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (14 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (12 Feb) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (13 Feb, 14 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
Class M 15%15%15%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton15%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Feb 113
  Predicted    12 Feb-14 Feb 110/107/105
  90 Day Mean        11 Feb 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Feb  007/009
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb  009/012-010/010-006/006

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%15%10%
Minor storm 10%05%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm 30%25%20%
Major-severe storm 35%25%15%

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