Viewing archive of Wednesday, 11 November 2015

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Nov 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Nov, 13 Nov, 14 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 805 km/s at 11/0609Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 11/0109Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 11/0012Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 59508 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (12 Nov), unsettled to active levels on day two (13 Nov) and active to minor storm levels on day three (14 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Nov to 14 Nov
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Nov 105
  Predicted   12 Nov-14 Nov 105/105/110
  90 Day Mean        11 Nov 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov  032/035
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Nov  021/027
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov  022/030-012/015-018/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov to 14 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%40%
Minor storm25%10%20%
Major-severe storm10%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%10%
Minor storm25%30%30%
Major-severe storm60%40%55%

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