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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Nov 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 07/2321Z from Region 2449 (S12E57). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Nov, 10 Nov, 11 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 559 km/s at 08/1645Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 07/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 08/1026Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4276 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (09 Nov) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (10 Nov, 11 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Nov to 11 Nov
Class M 15%15%15%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Nov 108
  Predicted    09 Nov-11 Nov 108/108/110
  90 Day Mean        08 Nov 104

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov  029/039
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Nov  012/015
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov  019/025-014/018-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov to 11 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm 15%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 25%30%30%
Major-severe storm 45%30%30%

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