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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Oct 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 19/1727Z from Region 2436 (N09E44). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Oct, 21 Oct, 22 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 479 km/s at 18/2126Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 332 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on day one (20 Oct), quiet to active levels on day two (21 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Oct to 22 Oct
Class M45%45%45%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Oct 124
  Predicted   20 Oct-22 Oct 125/125/120
  90 Day Mean        19 Oct 102

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct  015/021
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Oct  006/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct  006/005-009/012-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct to 22 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%25%20%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm10%30%25%
Major-severe storm10%30%25%

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