Viewing archive of Sunday, 18 October 2015

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Oct 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 17/2335Z from Region 2437 (S19E74). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate on days one, two, and three (19 Oct, 20 Oct, 21 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 490 km/s at 18/1804Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 18/0656Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 18/0758Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 770 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (19 Oct, 21 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (20 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Oct to 21 Oct
Class M55%55%55%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Oct 120
  Predicted   19 Oct-21 Oct 125/125/125
  90 Day Mean        18 Oct 102

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct  009/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Oct  020/024
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct  010/012-007/008-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct to 21 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%15%25%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%20%
Minor storm30%20%30%
Major-severe storm30%20%30%

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