Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 October 2015

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Oct 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 15/1838Z from Region 2434 (S10E48). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Oct, 17 Oct, 18 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 523 km/s at 15/0730Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 15/1611Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 15/1619Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8141 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 Oct) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Oct to 18 Oct
Class M30%40%40%
Class X01%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Oct 107
  Predicted   16 Oct-18 Oct 105/110/120
  90 Day Mean        15 Oct 101

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct  016/020
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Oct  013/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct  014/018-012/015-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct to 18 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%15%
Minor storm20%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%20%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm50%30%20%

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