Viewing archive of Monday, 28 September 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Sep 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Sep 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at
28/1458Z from Region 2422 (S20W30). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Sep, 30
Sep, 01 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 410 km/s at
28/0018Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 28/1140Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 28/0043Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 408 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (29 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (30 Sep, 01 Oct). Protons have a chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (29 Sep, 30 Sep) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (01 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Sep to 01 Oct
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Sep 124 Predicted 29 Sep-01 Oct 130/125/125 90 Day Mean 28 Sep 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Sep 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Sep 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Sep-01 Oct 006/005-006/006-008/009
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Sep to 01 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 15% | 20% |
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