Viewing archive of Monday, 27 July 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jul 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 208 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jul 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Jul,
29 Jul, 30 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
550 km/s at 27/0656Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 27/0233Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 27/0533Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 820 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (28 Jul, 30
Jul) and quiet to active levels on day two (29 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Jul to 30 Jul
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Jul 100 Predicted 28 Jul-30 Jul 100/105/105 90 Day Mean 27 Jul 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jul 009/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jul 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jul-30 Jul 009/010-013/016-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jul to 30 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 40% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 55% | 05% |
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