Viewing archive of Sunday, 26 July 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jul 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
26/1234Z from Region 2389 (S11E35). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Jul,
28 Jul, 29 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
507 km/s at 25/2222Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 26/0258Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 25/2219Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1109 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (27 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (28 Jul) and unsettled to active levels on day three (29 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jul to 29 Jul
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jul 097 Predicted 27 Jul-29 Jul 100/105/110 90 Day Mean 26 Jul 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul 009/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jul 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul 006/005-009/010-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul to 29 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 20% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 25% | 55% |
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