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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jun 18 0520 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 17/0001Z from Region 2371 (N11E66). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Jun, 19 Jun, 20 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 623 km/s at 17/0346Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 16/2133Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 17/1320Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2803 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (18-20 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jun to 20 Jun
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Jun 136
  Predicted   18 Jun-20 Jun 135/130/130
  90 Day Mean        17 Jun 126

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun  014/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Jun  012/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun to 20 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

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