Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 June 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jun 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
14/0059Z from Region 2360 (N15W91). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (15 Jun) and expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (16 Jun,
17 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 646 km/s at 14/1944Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 14/1010Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 14/0824Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1270
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Jun), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (16 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (17 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jun to 17 Jun
| Class M | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jun 132 Predicted 15 Jun-17 Jun 125/120/115 90 Day Mean 14 Jun 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jun 017/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun 010/012-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun to 17 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 25% | 10% |
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