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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 May 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 140 Issued at 2200Z on 20 May 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 20/0812Z from Region 2349 (S21E04). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 May, 22 May, 23 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 652 km/s at 20/0410Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 20/1543Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 20/0001Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 125 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (21 May, 22 May, 23 May).
III. Event Probabilities 21 May to 23 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 May 106
  Predicted   21 May-23 May 105/100/100
  90 Day Mean        20 May 128

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 May  014/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 May  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 May-23 May  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 May to 23 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

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