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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Apr 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 21/2145Z from Region 2322 (N11W87). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day one (23 Apr) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (24 Apr, 25 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 618 km/s at 21/2247Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 21/2223Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 22/1359Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 942 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (23 Apr, 25 Apr) and quiet levels on day two (24 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
Class M45%20%20%
Class X05%01%01%
Proton05%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Apr 150
  Predicted   23 Apr-25 Apr 150/145/145
  90 Day Mean        22 Apr 131

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr  018/020
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Apr  013/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr  015/015-007/008-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%30%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%25%30%
Major-severe storm35%25%35%

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