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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Mar 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 81 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Mar, 24 Mar, 25 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 757 km/s at 22/0834Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 22/0734Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 22/0642Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 12337 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (23 Mar), quiet to active levels on day two (24 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day three (25 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Mar to 25 Mar
Class M 05%05%05%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Mar 122
  Predicted    23 Mar-25 Mar 125/125/125
  90 Day Mean        22 Mar 133

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar  012/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Mar  016/024
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar  016/020-014/012-015/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar to 25 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%45%45%
Minor storm 25%20%15%
Major-severe storm 05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm 25%35%30%
Major-severe storm 60%55%55%

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