Viewing archive of Sunday, 15 February 2015

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Feb 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 46 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb, 18 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 386 km/s at 15/1742Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 15/1336Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 15/0821Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 316 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (17 Feb, 18 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Feb 120
  Predicted   16 Feb-18 Feb 125/130/130
  90 Day Mean        15 Feb 151

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Feb  007/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb  012/012-009/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%15%
Minor storm10%10%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm30%30%25%
Major-severe storm45%40%20%

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