Viewing archive of Saturday, 14 February 2015

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Feb 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 45 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (15 Feb) and likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 360 km/s at 14/0112Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 14/2034Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 14/1535Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 318 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (15 Feb, 16 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (17 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
Class M 10%25%25%
Class X 01%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Feb 120
  Predicted    15 Feb-17 Feb 120/125/130
  90 Day Mean        14 Feb 152

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Feb  003/003
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb  009/012-012/015-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%35%30%
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 30%30%30%
Major-severe storm 40%45%40%

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