Viewing archive of Monday, 19 January 2015

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jan 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 19 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 19/1013Z from Region 2259 (S16W74). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Jan, 21 Jan, 22 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 386 km/s at 19/0922Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 19/0738Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 19/2055Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (20 Jan, 21 Jan, 22 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Jan 130
  Predicted   20 Jan-22 Jan 125/125/125
  90 Day Mean        19 Jan 157

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Jan  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan  007/008-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm25%25%25%

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