Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 January 2015

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jan 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 15 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 14/2324Z from Region 2257 (N07W93). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan, 18 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 478 km/s at 15/0520Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 15/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 15/1252Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 147 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (16 Jan, 17 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (18 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jan to 18 Jan
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Jan 131
  Predicted   16 Jan-18 Jan 130/125/125
  90 Day Mean        15 Jan 160

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Jan  007/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan  011/010-008/010-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan to 18 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%35%
Minor storm10%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%30%
Major-severe storm40%30%45%

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