Viewing archive of Tuesday, 13 January 2015

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jan 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 13 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at 13/0424Z from Region 2257 (N07W81). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (14 Jan) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (15 Jan, 16 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 479 km/s at 13/1312Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 13/0351Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 13/1107Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 224 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (14 Jan), quiet to active levels on day two (15 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (16 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jan to 16 Jan
Class M45%40%35%
Class X10%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Jan 145
  Predicted   14 Jan-16 Jan 145/140/140
  90 Day Mean        13 Jan 160

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan  007/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Jan  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan  006/005-011/012-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan to 16 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm01%15%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm20%30%25%
Major-severe storm10%40%30%
COMMENT: 10 cm Flux is estimated due to lack of Penticton report.

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