Viewing archive of Thursday, 25 December 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Dec 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 359 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Dec 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
25/1211Z from Region 2248 (S20E47). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Dec, 27 Dec,
28 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
557 km/s at 24/2139Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 25/1901Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 25/1838Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 431 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (26 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (27 Dec, 28 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Dec to 28 Dec
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Dec 145 Predicted 26 Dec-28 Dec 140/145/145 90 Day Mean 25 Dec 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Dec 012/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Dec 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Dec-28 Dec 006/005-007/008-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Dec to 28 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 20% | 30% |
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